The headline inflation or overall inflation of Cagayan Valley dropped to 1.4 percent in June 2025 from 1.7 percent in May 2025. This brings the region’s average inflation to 2.8 percent from January to June 2025. In comparison, the inflation rate in June 2024 was higher, at 4.4 percent. (Figure 1)

The deceleration in the overall inflation of Cagayan Valley in June 2025 was primarily brought about by the slower annual increment in the index of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, which recorded 0.7 percent during the month from 3.0 percent in May 2025. The lower inflation rate of food and non-alcoholic beverages at 1.5 percent from 1.6 percent, also contributed to the downtrend.

Moreover, lower annual increments were also noted in the indices of the following commodity group for the month of June 2025:

•     Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent; and

•      Clothing and footwear, 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent.

On the contrary, the following commodity groups registered higher inflation rate during the month in review:

•      Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent;

•      Transport, -2.5 percent from -3.6 percent;

•      Recreation, sport and culture, 3.0 percent from 2.2 percent;

•      Education services, 2.0 percent from 1.5 percent; and

•     Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.4 percent from 2.1 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective

The top three commodity groups contributing to the June 2025 overall inflation of Cagayan Valley were the following:

1.      Food and non-alcoholic beverages, with 46.2 percent share or contributing 0.7 percentage points to the overall regional inflation;

2.      Restaurants and accommodation services, with 31.1 percent share or contributing 0.4 percentage points to the overall regional inflation; and

3.      Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, with 8.6 percent share or contributing 0.1 percentage point to the overall regional inflation.

Food inflation in Cagayan Valley eased to 1.4 percent in  June 2025 from 1.6 percent in May 2025. In June 2024, food inflation was higher at 6.7 percent.

The deceleration of food inflation in June 2025 was mainly influenced by the lower inflation rate of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 7.3 percent from 13.0 percent. This was followed by the decrease in inflation rate of rice at -21.1 percent during the month in review from -20.2 percent and ready-made food and other food products n.e.c., at 2.9 percent from 4.8 percent in May 2025.

In addition, the decline in the inflation rate of sugar, confectionery and desserts, at -1.7percent in June 2025 from -1.4 percent in May 2025, also influenced the lower food inflation.

On the contrary, higher inflation rates in June 2025 compared to 
May 2025 were observed in the indices of the following food groups:

•     Corn, -4.8 percent from -7.3 percent;

•     Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 2.6 percent from 1.8 percent;

•      Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 13.8 percent from 12.9 percent;

•      Fish and other seafood 6.9 percent from 6.5 percent;

•      Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 5.4 percent from 4.4 percent;

•      Oils and fats, 13.3 percent from 11.5 percent; and

•       Fruits and nuts, 28.3 percent from 22.2 percent.

Food inflation shared 40.5 percent or 0.6 percentage points to the overall inflation in June 2025. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

1.    .  Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, with a share of 235.6 percent; 

2.       Fish other seafood, with a share of 74.5 percent; and

3.       Fruits and nuts, with a share of 59.7 percent.

All provinces except Cagayan had lower inflation rates during the month in review, which experienced the highest inflation rate at 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent in May 2025. Meanwhile, Quirino Province posted the lowest inflation rate, with 0.4 percent inflation in June 2025 from 2.2 percent in the previous month. (Table 3)

The Province of Isabela posted the highest percent share to the lower inflation rate of the region with 69.3 percent. The lower inflation rate of the province was observed in the indices of the following commodity groups:

•     Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, -2.9 percent from 1.4 percent;

•     Food and non-alcoholic beverages, 1.4 percent from 1.7 percent; and

•    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 0.2 percent from 0.4 percent.

The rest of the commodity groups in the province either remained at their previous month’s rates or had higher inflation rates.

In terms of the region’s inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households, it exhibited a decline of 0.5 percent in June 2025 from 1.2 percent in May 2025. In June 2024, the inflation rate was posted at 5.2 percent. (Figure 2)

The main driver of the downtrend of the overall inflation for this income group in June 2025 was the lower year-on-year growth rate of the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, at -0.5 percent during the month from 4.4 percent and food and non-alcoholic beverages, at -0.6 percent from -0.2 percent in May 2025.

In addition, lower inflation rates were posted by the following commodity groups:

•    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 0.1 percent from 0.4 percent; 

•     Health, 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent; and

•     Information and communication, 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s inflation rates.

ENGR. GIRME M. BAYUCAN

(Chief Statistical Specialist)

Officer-in-Charge, PSA-RSSO II

//EMDP/MLLP/SJCP