The headline inflation or overall inflation of Cagayan Valley further slowed down to 1.7 percent in May 2025 from 2.0 percent in April 2025. This brings the region’s average inflation to 3.1 percent from January to May 2025. In comparison, the inflation rate in May 2024 was higher, at 4.1 percent. (Figure 1)

Moreover, lower annual increments were also noted in the indices of the following commodity group for the month of May 2025:

•    Transport, -3.6 percent from -3.3 percent; 
•    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 0.7 percent from 1.4 percent; 
•    Clothing and footwear, 2.0 percent from 2.5 percent; 
•    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.1 percent from 2.4 percent;
•    Recreation, sport and culture, 2.2 percent from 3.0 percent;
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 3.5 percent from 3.7 percent; and
•    Information and communication, 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent.

On the contrary, only the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels registered higher inflation rate during the month with 3.0 percent from 0.6 percent in April 2025.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s inflation rates. (Table 1)

The top three commodity groups contributing to the May 2025 overall inflation of Cagayan Valley were the following:

a.    Food and non-alcoholic beverages, with 40.6 percent share or contributing 0.7 percentage points to the overall regional inflation;
b.    Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, with 29.9 percent share or contributing 0.5 percentage point to the overall regional inflation; and 
c.    Restaurants and accommodation services, with 24.8 percent share or contributing 0.4 percentage points to the overall regional inflation.

Food inflation in Cagayan Valley eased to 1.6 percent in  May 2025 from 2.9 percent in April 2025. In May 2024, food inflation was higher at 7.0 percent.

The deceleration of food inflation in May 2025 was mainly influenced by the lower inflation rate of rice at -20.2 percent from -13.3 percent. This was followed by the decrease in inflation rate of fish and other seafood at 6.5 percent during the month in review from 7.9 percent in April 2025.

In addition, the inflation rate of the following food items showed a decline in their respective inflation rates during the month in review:

•    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c., 4.8 percent from 5.8 percent;
•    Sugar, confectionery and desserts, -1.4 percent from -0.6 percent;
•    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 12.9 percent from 13.0 percent; and
•    Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent.

On the contrary, higher inflation rates in May 2025 compared to 
April 2025 were observed in the indices of the following food groups:

•    Corn, -7.3 percent from -10.7 percent;
•    Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 4.4 percent from 3.5 percent;
•    Oils and fats, 11.5 percent from 9.5 percent;
•    Fruits and nuts, 22.2 percent from 20.6 percent; and
•    Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, 
13.0 percent from 6.9 percent.

Food inflation shared 36.7 percent or 0.6 percentage points to the overall inflation in May 2025. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a.    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, with a share of 190.9 percent; 
b.    Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, with a share of 76.5 percent; and
c.    Fish other seafood, with a share of 62.5 percent.

Three provinces, namely, Batanes, Cagayan and Nueva Vizcaya had lower inflation rates during the month in review. While the provinces of Isabela and Quirino experienced an increase in inflation rate. The Province of Batanes still recorded the highest inflation among five provinces with 2.8 percent inflation from 3.9 percent in April 2025. Meanwhile, Nueva Vizcaya posted the lowest inflation rate, with  0.9 percent inflation in May 2025 from 1.2 percent in the previous month. (Table 3)

The Province of Cagayan posted the highest percent share to the lower inflation rate of the region with 87.3 percent. The lower inflation rate of the province was observed in the indices of the following commodity groups:

•    Food and non-alcoholic beverages, 1.8 percent from 4.4 percent;
•    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 0.4 percent from 2.2 percent;
•    Transport, -3.3 percent from -2.8 percent; 
•    Clothing and footwear, 2.1 percent from 3.3 percent;
•    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.8 percent from 3.5 percent;
•    Recreation, sport and culture, -0.7 percent from 1.3 percent;
•    Restaurants and accommodation services, 9.0 percent from 9.2 percent;
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent; and
•    Health, 1.3 percent from 1.6 percent;
    
The rest of the commodity groups in the province either remained at their previous month’s rates or had higher inflation rates.

In terms of the region’s inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households, it exhibited a decline of 1.2 percent in May 2025 from 1.5 percent in April 2025. In May 2024, the inflation rate was posted at 4.4 percent. (Figure 2)
 

The main driver of the downtrend of the overall inflation for this income group in May 2025 was the lower year-on-year growth rate of the food and non-alcoholic beverages at -0.2 percent during the month from 1.3 percent in April 2025.

In addition, lower inflation rates were posted by the following commodity groups:

•    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.3 percent from 2.6 percent;
•    Clothing and footwear, 1.5 percent from 1.9 percent;
•    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 0.4 percent from 0.7 percent; 
•    Recreation, sport and culture, 3.8 percent from 4.4 percent;
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent; and
•    Health, 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s inflation rates.

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Note: CPIs and inflation rates by province and selected city are posted at the PSA OpenSTAT Portal at (https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/).

ENGR. GIRME M. BAYUCAN
(Chief Statistical Specialist)
Officer-in-Charge, PSA-RSSO II

//EMDP/MLLP/SJCP