The headline inflation or overall inflation of Cagayan Valley further eased  to 2.0 percent in April 2025 from 2.9 percent in March 2025. This brings the region’s average inflation to 3.4 percent from January to April 2025. In comparison, the inflation rate in April 2024 was higher, at 4.2 percent. (Figure 1)

The downtrend in the overall inflation of Cagayan Valley in April 2025 was primarily brought about by the slower annual increment in the index of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which recorded 2.8 percent during the month from 4.3 percent in March 2025. The decline in transport index at 
-3.3 percent in April 2025 from -1.7 percent in March 2025, also contributed to the decrement.

Moreover, lower annual increments were also noted in the indices of the following commodity group for the month of April 2025:

•    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 1.4 percent from 2.2 percent; 
•    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.4 percent from 2.9 percent;
•    Restaurants and accommodation services, 5.5 percent from 5.7 percent; 
•    Health, 2.1 percent from 2.4 percent; 
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 3.7 percent from 3.9 percent;
•    Information and communication, 0.2 percent from 0.4 percent; and
•    Recreation, sport and culture, 3.0 percent from 3.3 percent.

On the contrary, only the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels registered higher inflation rate during the month with 0.6 percent from 
0.5 percent in March 2025.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective
previous month’s inflation rates. (Table 1)

The top three commodity groups contributing to the April 2025 overall inflation of Cagayan Valley were the following:

a.    Food and non-alcoholic beverages, with 63.3 percent share or contributing 1.3 percentage points to the overall regional inflation;
b.    Restaurants and accommodation services, with 22.5 percent share or contributing 0.5 percentage point to the overall regional inflation; and 
c.    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, with 6.4 percent share or contributing 0.1 percentage points to the overall regional inflation.
 

Food inflation in Cagayan Valley decreased to 2.9 percent in April 2025 from 4.6 percent in March 2025. In April 2024, food inflation was higher at 7.1 percent.

The deceleration of food inflation in April 2025 was mainly influenced by the lower inflation rate of rice at -13.3 percent from -9.0 percent. This was followed by the decrease in inflation rate of vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 6.9 percent during the month in review from 16.2 percent in March 2025.

In addition, the inflation rate of the following food items showed a decline in their respective inflation rates during the month in review:

•    Sugar, confectionery and desserts, -0.6 percent from 0.0 percent;
•    Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c., 5.8 percent from 6.0 percent;
•    Corn, -10.7 percent from -7.3 percent; and
•    Flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, 2.1 percent from 2.7 percent.

On the contrary, higher inflation rates in April 2025 compared to 
March 2025 were observed in the indices of the following food groups:

•    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 13.0 percent from 12.6 percent;
•    Fish and other seafood, 7.9 percent from 7.2 percent;
•    Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 3.5 percent from 2.3 percent;
•    Oils and fats, 9.5 percent from 7.6 percent; and
•    Fruits and nuts, 20.6 percent from 20.3 percent.

Food inflation shared 60.0 percent or 1.2 percentage points to the overall inflation in April 2025. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a.    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, with a share of 103.3 percent; 
b.    Fish and other seafood, with a share of 40.8 percent; and
c.    Fruits and nuts, with a share of 22.8 percent.

All provinces had lower inflation rates during the month in review. The Province of Batanes recorded the highest inflation among five provinces with 3.9 percent inflation from 4.2 percent in March 2025. Meanwhile, Quirino posted the lowest inflation rate, with 0.0 percent inflation in April 2025 from 1.6 percent in the previous month. (Table 3)

The Province of Cagayan posted the highest percent share to the lower inflation rate of the region with 36.8 percent. The lower inflation rate of the province was observed in the indices of the following commodity groups:
•    Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 4.1 percent from 6.9 percent;
•    Transport, -2.8 percent from -1.6 percent; 
•    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 2.2 percent from 4.0 percent;
•    Restaurants and accommodation services, 9.2 percent from 9.9 percent;
•    Food and non-alcoholic beverages, 4.4 percent from 4.5 percent;
•    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 3.5 percent from 4.3 percent;
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 3.2 percent from 3.6 percent;
•    Clothing and footwear, 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent;
•    Recreation, sport and culture, 1.3 percent from 2.3 percent; and
•    Health, 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent;

The rest of the commodity groups in the province either remained at their previous month’s rates or had higher inflation rates.

In terms of the region’s inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households, it slowed down to 1.5 percent in April 2025 from 2.5 percent in March 2025. In April 2024, the inflation rate was posted at 4.4 percent. (Figure 2)
 

The main driver of the downtrend of the overall inflation for this income group in April 2025 was the lower year-on-year growth rate of the food and non-alcoholic beverages at 1.3 percent during the month from 3.4 percent in March 2025. The inflation of transport at -2.8 percent in April 2025 from -1.2 percent in March 2025, also contributed to the decrease in inflation.

In addition, lower inflation rates were posted by the following commodity groups:

•    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.6 percent from 3.1 percent;
•    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 0.7 percent from 1.7 percent; 
•    Restaurants and accommodation services, 6.3 percent from 6.5 percent;
•    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 3.8 percent from 4.2 percent;
•    Health, 2.3 percent from 2.5 percent;
•    Information and Communication, 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent; and
•    Recreation, sport and culture, 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s inflation rates.
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Note: CPIs and inflation rates by province and selected city are posted at the PSA OpenSTAT Portal at (https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/).

ENGR. GIRME M. BAYUCAN
(Chief Statistical Specialist)
Officer-in-Charge, PSA-RSSO II

//EMDP/SJCP