The headline inflation of Cagayan Valley reached 5.1 percent in January 2025 from 4.6 percent in December 2024. In January 2024, the inflation rate was lower, at 1.5 percent. (Figure 1)

The increase in the headline inflation of Cagayan Valley in January 2025 was primarily influenced by the higher year-on-year inflation rate of food and non-alcoholic beverages which was recorded at 6.6 percent during the month compared to 5.5 percent in December 2024. The upward trend in transport at 0.9 percent during the month from 0.2 percent in December 2024, including housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 4.0 percent in January 2025 from 3.8 percent in the previous month, also contributed to the increment.

Moreover, higher annual growth rates were also noted in the indices of the following commodity groups for the month of January 2025:

-Clothing and footwear, 3.1 percent from 2.9 percent; 

-Information and communication, 0.7 percent from 0.6 percent;

-Recreation, sport and culture, 3.1 percent from 2.9 percent; and

-Financial services, 0.0 percent from -0.1 percent.

On the contrary, the following commodity groups registered lower inflation rates during the month:

-Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 4.1 percent from 4.7 percent;

-Health, 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent; and

-Restaurants and accommodation services, 8.5 percent from 9.6 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective

The top three commodity groups contributing to the January 2025 overall inflation of Cagayan Valley were the following:

a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, with 57.8 percent share or contributing 3.0 percentage points to the overall regional inflation;

b. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, with 15.0 percent share or contributing 0.8 percentage points to the overall regional inflation; and

c. Restaurants and accommodation services, with 13.4 percent share or contributing 0.7 percentage points to the overall regional inflation.

Food inflation in Cagayan Valley rose to 6.9 percent in January 2025 from 5.7 percent in December 2024. In January 2024, food inflation was lower at 3.4 percent.

The acceleration of food inflation in January 2025 was mainly brought about by the higher inflation rate of meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with 10.1 percent during the month from 6.2 percent in December 2024. This was followed by vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses at 40.8 percent from 32.9 percent and fruits and nuts, with an inflation rate of 12.7 percent from 3.0 percent.

Further, the inflation rate of oils and fats also showed an increase at 3.5 percent during the month in review from 1.9 percent in the previous month.

In contrast, lower inflation rates during the month of January 2025 compared to December 2024 were observed in the indices of the following food groups:

-Rice, -4.0 percent from -1.9 percent;

-Corn, -5.0 percent from -1.7 percent;

-Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 3.3 percent from 4.4 percent; and

-Sugar, confectionery and desserts, -5.7 percent from -5.4 percent.

Food inflation shared 57.1 percent or 2.9 percentage points to the overall inflation in January 2025. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a. Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, with a share of   57.6 percent;

b. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, with a share of 33.4 percent; and

c. Fish and other seafood, with a share of 8.8 percent.

Except for the Province of Nueva Vizcaya, all other provinces in the region experienced an upward trend in their inflation rates during the month in review. The Province of Cagayan recorded the highest inflation among the five provinces with 5.8 percent inflation from 5.7 percent in December 2024. Meanwhile, Nueva Vizcaya posted the lowest inflation rate, with 3.2 percent inflation in January 2025 from 4.6 percent in the previous month. (Table 3)

The Province of Isabela posted the highest percent share to the higher inflation rate of the region with 75.3 percent. The higher inflation rate of the province was observed in the indices of the following commodity groups:

-Food and non-alcoholic beverages, 7.9 percent from 6.2 percent;

-Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 2.4 percent from -0.1 percent;

-Transport, 2.5 percent from 1.4 percent;

-Clothing and footwear, 1.2 percent from 0.8 percent; and

-Recreation, sport and culture, 4.3 percent from 3.9 percent.

The rest of the commodity groups in the province either remained at their previous month’s rates or had lower growth rates.

The same trend was noted on the region’s inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households. Inflation rate for this income household group went up to 5.4 percent in January 2025 from 4.8 percent in December 2024. (Figure 2)

Main driver of the uptrend of the overall inflation for this income group in January 2025 was the higher year-on-year growth rate of food and non-alcoholic beverages at 6.0 percent during the month from 5.2 percent in December 2024. The inflation of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 5.5 percent in January 2025 from 4.5 percent in December, also contributed to the increase in inflation.

In addition, higher inflation rates were also noted on the following commodity groups:

-Transport, 1.3 percent from 0.9 percent; 

-Clothing and footwear, 2.6 percent from 2. 3 percent;

-Recreation, sport and culture, 4.6 percent from 4.0 percent; and

-Health, 2.5 percent from 2.4 percent.

Conversely, lower inflation rates were noted in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month: 

-Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 4.2 percent from 4.4 percent;

-Furnishings, household equipment and routine, 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent; and

-Restaurants and accommodation services, 9.0 percent from 9.9 percent.

The indices of the rest of the commodity groups retained their respective previous month’s inflation rates.

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Note: CPIs and inflation rates by province and selected city are posted at the PSA OpenSTAT Portal at (https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/).

ENGR. GIRME M. BAYUCAN

(Chief Statistical Specialist)

Officer-in-Charge, PSA-RSSO II

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