Q2 Corn Production Below 2018 Level

Reference Number: 

SR-2019-040

Release Date: 

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Body: 

The estimated corn production for the 2nd quarter of the year showed slight decrease of about 7.05 percent
compared with the reported production in 2018 of the same period. The latest quarter estimates is equivalent to about 23,581 metric tons volume of production deficit from the 2018 actual production of 334,246 metric tons. On the other hand, and as can be deduced
from latest Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) conducted last July 2019, bulk of the harvest for the semester (which is practically
the cropping period in the region) falls on the 1st quarter as supported by the reported production of about 599,840 metric tons 
compared with the 2nd quarter estimates of 310,665 metric tons. Delving deeper and on the basis of the result on estimates,
the distribution of production on a quarter basis showed that the 1st quarter production is almost twice the production of the 2nd quarter.

          

Undisputedly, yellow corn production affected unilaterally the trend in production for the period owing to its huge share
in the total production coupled with the current quarter estimates of only 303,012 metric compared with the reported production in 2018 at 329,172 metric tons. This is equivalent to about 7.9 percent decrease or a decline in volume by about 26,160 metric tons.
On the contrary, white corn production appreciated by more than fifty percent but not enough to impact the trend established
from yellow corn production drift.    

 

Productivity greatly affects corn production in Q2 2019

In terms of the production area, slight increase was noted for the current quarter across corn types.  Area harvested
for white and yellow corn in Q2 2019 is 1.76 higher than the 2018 level or an aggregate area of more than five thousand hectares
above the 2018 report. Specifically, yellow corn area harvested for the year is 3,943 hectares above the 2018 record
or an increase by 5.5 percent while white corn source of production is 1,102 hectares more than the report a year ago
or an equivalent increase of about 67.6 percent.  

Unfortunately, corn production in the region for the current quarter was greatly affected by the decrease in the productivity.
Both white and yellow corn yield per hectare suffered the same circumstance with higher impact in harvested yellow corn areas.
In detail, the realized yield per hectare for yellow in the 2nd quarter of 2019 was slashed by about twelve sacks per hectare
or from 4.58 metric tons per hectare in 2018 to only 3.99 metric tons per hectare this year.  In the same vain,
yield per hectare for white corn was short by more than six sacks per hectare or from 3.12 metric tons per hectare in 2018
to 2.80 metric tons per hectare this year.  

 

Isabela produced more than half of the corn production in the region

The 2019 second quarter corn production was produced largely from the province of Isabela as supported by its share of 51.8 percent
or more than half of regional corn production. No wonder, Isabela province ranked number one in terms of corn production contribution
to the national production, and housed the City of Ilagan which was adjudged as the corn capital of the Philippines. On the other hand,
Cagayan province produced almost one third or 30.2 percent while Quirino and Nueva Vizcaya provinces contributed
around 14.1 and 3.9 percent, respectively. The province of Batanes shared less than one percent.

In terms of the production by corn type, all the provinces reported production for the two types with bulk of the production
across provinces shelled from yellow corn areas. The province of Isabela reported around 98.2 percent or about 157,894 metric tons
of yellow corn from the total corn production of 160,820 metric tons and around 1.8 percent were white corn
or an equivalent volume of production of 2,926 metric tons. The province of Cagayan, on the other hand, had 96.8 percent
as yellow corn production from the total production in the province of around 93,786 metric tons or an equivalent yellow corn production
of 90,775 metric tons. The remaining 3.2 percent were harvested from white corn or an estimated production of 3,011 metric tons.
Across provinces, Cagayan province reported the largest white corn production during the quarter under review.
Meanwhile, the estimates for the corn production in the province of Nueva Vizcaya for the two types had the same percentage share
with that of the Cagayan province. In almost the scenario, yellow corn production in the province of Quirino was also pegged
at 97.0 percent of its total corn production while the remaining 3.0 percent were harvested as white corn.

 

3Q 2019 corn production more than double the production in 2018  

If growing of corn will run in its normal course, corn production in the region will reached 753,841 metric tons for the 3rd quarter of 2019,
a whopping 143.6 percent increase from Q3 2018 reported production of only 309,421 metric tons. The forecast, if realized,
will pile an additional production of 444,420 metric tons for the 3rd quarter of the year that will be spared from effect of strong typhoons
that usually occur during the last quarter of the year.    

The increase in the forecast estimates can be tracked from the standing crop (area planted as of July 1, 2019
and are expected to be harvested during the 3rd quarter of 2019) of about 166,624 hectares, more than double the area harvested in 2018.
This is equivalent to about 122.8 percent increase or an absolute increase in area by 91,843 hectares.
Pushing further the increased forecast is the expected additional productivity of 0.38 metric tons per hectare
or about eight sacks per hectare from the reported actual yield in 2018 of 4.14 metric tons per hectare.  

The increase in area planted that sparked the increase in production is due to early planting especially in corn producing provinces
of the region. On the other hand, the early planting was triggered by occurrence of heavy rainfall during the months of planting
as supported by the rainfall data provided by two PAGASA Research Stations in the region.

          

 

 

MARILYN T. ESTRADA
Regional Director
 
 
//GMB
 
 
 
Technical Notes: 
 
Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop duringthe reference period.  For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter.
 
Estimates and forecasts of production and harvest area of palay and corn are generated from the Quarterly Palay
and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) of which there are four survey rounds in a year, that is, January, April, July and October.
The following are the data taken from these surveys: 
 
1) Production estimates of the previous quarter for each survey round;
2) Forecast one quarter ahead based on the standing crop; and
3) Forecast two quarters ahead based on planting intentions. 
 
 
Definition of Terms:
 
Irrigated - palay area with irrigation facilities that supplies water to the farm through artificial means with gravity, force/power, pumps, etc. it is not confined only to low areas but also to high places where paddies are built for standing rice.
 
Rainfed - palay area that has dikes that retain water and is solely dependent upon rainfall for its water supply.
 
Upland - palay area without amenities for standing water. It is not only confined to high places but also to low areas without irrigation.
 
White Corn- used primarily for human consumption.
 
Yellow Corn- generally used as feed grain which includes all types of corn other than white.
 
Yield- is an indicator of productivity derived by dividing the total production by the area harvested.