Inflation of Cagayan Valley goes up at 1.6

Reference Number: 

SR-2020-003

Release Date: 

Friday, January 31, 2020

Body: 

Inflation of Cagayan Valley for December 2019 increased at 1.6.  Last month, the region ’s inflation showed a negative value at 0.1 from its negative 0.5 in November which was so far the lowest among inflation rates of the region for the whole year with all provinces of the region following the same decreasing trend.  Compared last year of the same month, the latest inflation was 4.4 percentage points lower.    

This year, the country’s inflation showed a steady downward trend except for the 10th month, it rose to 0.8 percent  while the region’s inflation displayed an erratic pattern, yet  following the national pattern but contracted with the regional inflation this month.

In general, the national and the region’s inflation showed a decreasing pattern since January 2019, the region’s inflation was lower than the national average in five reference months except during the months of January and May where the former’s average is higher than the latter. The region’s inflation in January 2019 at 5.4 percent is 1.0 percentage point higher than the national average but gradually decreased during the next two months below the national average. In April and May 2019, inflation in the region steadily climbed at 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively with the inflation record of the region almost identical with the national average on those months. The latest inflation of the region significantly rose from its rate of negative 0.1 last month.  The region’s inflation started to loop under the national average since June 2019. 

Inflation of Cagayan Valley was very much lower compared with the national and Areas Outside NCR (AONCR) at an average of 0.6 and 0.8 percent, respectively.  The national and AONCR inflation rate averages were both 2.5 percent whereas Cagayan Valley’s average inflation in 2019 was 2.1 percent.

Inflation by province showed that all provinces in the region including Batanes who deviated from the usual trend of provinces especially during the month of August  follow the same decreasing trend since last month. Inflation in said province which displayed the highest rate among the provinces  increased by 0.6 percent this month The provincial trends on a month-on-month  inflation for the for the whole year were more or less symmetrically intertwined downwards except for a slight twist from the province of Batanes. 

Inflation for all provinces of the region scrolled up in December this year with Batanes having the highest inflation of 4.0 followed by Isabela compared with their inflation last month of 3.4 and 0.2 percent, respectively.  Provinces of Cagayan and Quirino likewise showed negative inflation at 0.9 and 0.2 percent, respectively.

It is noteworthy that Quirino consistently showed the lowest inflation up to August this year which started from 3.1 in January 2019 to   as low as negative 0.3  in August 2019 and had the highest inflation in September among all months of  year in 2018 in the province and likewise had the lowest inflation among all provinces of the same month last year at only 3.5 percent, followed by Batanes at 6.6 percent and the rest of the provinces at more than 8 percent.

The regional inflation behaviour was shaped from the inflation report in the provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya and Quirino.

The region’s inflation of 6.0 percent in December 2018 was higher by 0.9 percentage point than the national average and lower by 1.5 percentage point compared with Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) who had the highest inflation in December last year.  However, after a year, inflation of Cagayan Valley went down to 1.6, lower than the national inflation at 0.9 percentage point and lower than Bicol Region, the highest so far in December 2019 at 1.7 percentage point.  

 

Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 2019 generally went up except for slight fluctuations in Cagayan Valley, compared with that of the national following a smooth upward pattern.  In February and March 2019, it declined for both areas but reverted again its direction upward beginning April 2019 and this trend continued up to the latest month in review.          

 

Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco leading price indices

Both Cagayan Valley and national price indices of Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco nailed the highest compared with other commodity groups, higher even compared with the average of all items for both regional and national average.  The region’s CPI for this group is higher by 21.6 index points compared with that of the national.

 

Following next in the region’s highest CPI was Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House at 128.9 price index, a little higher than last month by 0.2 index point and for the national was Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 128.2 index points.

The current CPI of the region on Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco having the highest of all commodities had Tobacco CPI which was consistently far greater at 348.0 price index than its counterpart of 142.6 index points for   Alcoholic beverages.  It means that the average CPI for Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco was effected mainly by prices of tobacco.

 

By province, tobacco is more costly in Batanes than in any other provinces at CPI of 461.9 and in Isabela at CPI of 409.5 but cheapest in Quirino at CPI 315.8.  Alcoholic beverages is expensive especially in Quirino at CPI of 155.3 but cheapest in Isabela at 139.6.

 

Education cheapest in Cagayan Valley

Still showing lowest CPI in December 2019 was education at 95.5.  Specifically, Tertiary Education was the cheapest at 73.8, followed by secondary education at 144.1.  Pre-primary and primary education is the costliest of all at 145.0.

The CPI for Education in the province of Cagayan was noted as lowest in the region. It maintained its CPI report of 73.8 percent since August 2019 at 21.3 index points lower than the regional average and almost tripled the highest rate in the region reported in the province of Batanes.

While Cagayan had the cheapest among all provinces in Education, Batanes CPI on Education is the second of the most expensive commodity in Batanes at CPI of 200.9.

 

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) weakens a t P 0.81  

In December 2019, the PPP weakened to P0.81 at P0.01 lower than last month. This means that the value of P1.00 in 2012 is only worth P0.81 December 2019. 

Although the provinces of Cagayan, Isabela and Quirino PPP went down and caused the region’s weaker PPP this month, the provinces of Batanes and Nueva Vizcaya maintained their peso value from last month.  Quirino, which steadily  the strongest in terms of purchasing power with P0.86 from January to November 2019, weakened in December 2019 at P0.85.  (SR-2020-003)

 

 

MARILYN T. ESTRADA
Regional Director
 
 
 
//GMB/MJCC

 

Technical Notes

 

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator of change in the average retail prices of a fixed    basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year. It measures how much on the average, prices of goods and services have   increased or decreased from a particular reference period. 

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) shows how much the peso in the base period is worth in another period. It gives an indication of the real value of the peso in a given period relative to the peso value in the base period.  Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) is inversely related to inflation rate. Thus, as inflation rate increases, PPP declines.