Inflation of Cagayan Valley drops further to 0.1

Reference Number: 

SR-2019-042

Release Date: 

Monday, October 28, 2019

Body: 

The region’s average inflation continue declining as it reached the regional average of 0.1 percent in September 2019 from 0.7 percent
last month as revealed by majority of the provinces drop of inflation compared with that of last month.  The average inflation
for the country so far was 1.7 percent, higher by 1.0 compared with Cagayan Valley.

Since January this year, provinces follow the same decreasing pattern. 

For this month, the region’s inflation abruptly decreased  following the same movement with that of previous months.  All provinces including that of Batanes
which had an increasing trend last month, declined this period.  

Isabela, unexpectedly, had the lowest inflation in the region at negative 0.2
in September this year taking the place of Quirino, second lowest this month
who consistently showed the lowest inflation up to August this year
which started from 3.1 in January 2019 to   as low as negative 0.3  in August 2019
and decreased further at negative 0.1 percent this month. The province’s inflation
was second to the lowest with what was recorded last month
but had the highest inflation in September among all months of  year in 2018
in the province and likewise had the highest among all provinces of the same month
last year.

All provinces in the region including Batanes who used to deviate from the usual trend of provinces follow the same decreasing trend
this month. Inflation in Batanes which displayed the highest rate among the provinces  decreased by 0.5 percent this month
from its 6.2 percent in August 2019, although it contracted by 2.9 percentage points from its record last year of the same month.

The regional  and national trends on a month-on-month  inflation almost the same.  The average CPI for all items of Cagayan Valley
at 121.7 in September 2019 is 1.1 index points higher than the national average of 120.6.

During the past nine months, the country’s inflation showed a steady downward trend while the region’s inflation displayed an erratic pattern,
although following the national trend.

In general, the national and the region’s inflation showed a decreasing pattern
since January 2019, the region’s inflation was lower than the national average
in five reference months except during the months of January and May
where the former’s average is higher than the latter. The region’s inflation
in January 2019 at 5.4 percent is 1.0 percentage point higher
than the national average but gradually decreased during the next two months
below the national average. In April and May 2019, inflation in the region
steadily climbed at 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively with the inflation record of the region almost identical
with the national average on those months. The latest inflation of the region which is the lowest rate for the past nine months
was higher  than the national average this month.

The regional inflation behaviour was shaped from the inflation report in the provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya and Quirino. Since January this year, the province of Batanes showed the highest monthly inflation across provinces in the region
with exception in the reported inflation during the month of February 2019
where the province of Nueva Vizcaya reported the highest inflation of 6.2 percent during that time. On the other hand and for the past seven months, the province
of Quirino showed the lowest inflation that started at 3.1 percent in January 2019
and down to less 1.0 percent for the next four months. During the past three months with its lowest current record at negative 0.1 percent.

Aside from almost identical rate reported, inflation in the two biggest provinces
of Cagayan and Isabela moved parallel to each other during the past eight months

Inflation rate in Nueva Vizcaya during the past nine months continue to decrease
from its highest rate record of 6.3 percent in January 2019,
too close to its February 2019 inflation of 6.2 percent. The pattern is similar
with the national average that depicted incremental decreases
with its lowest current record of 0.4 percent.        

 

All regions including Cagayan Valley decline inflation

All regions including Cagayan Valley reported a decline in the current inflation rate compared with its report in September 2018.

Among the regions with reported decline, Region V (Bicol Region) reported the biggest cut of 9.9 percentage points
from its previous rate of 10.1 percent while Region III (Central Luzon) decline of 2.4 percentage point apiece, the former
from its last year’s report of 4.5 percent while the latest, 2.1 percent inflation in September 2019

 

Communication and Education, cheapest commodities in Cagayan Valley

The CPI of Cagayan Valley for the two months in review showed a minimal decrease of only 0.6 index point.

Although most of the commodities increased in prices, two of these major items had considerable cheap prices as revealed by its CPI
of only 2-digit value.  Communication maintained its CPI at 99.4 while education maintained its CPI at 95.1, but still far lower
in terms of its price compared with any other commodity.

This September 2019, all provinces recorded decrease of CPI over its last month’s report. 

The two provinces with reported decrease in CPI this month compared to the report
a year ago were Isabela and Quirino with lowest downtick observed
in the abovementioned provinces at negative 0.2 and negative 0.1 index points,
respectively, lower than its record last month.

Current CPI in Batanes gained as much as 3.3 index points compared with the CPI report in September 2018. Increases in current CPI for all items of other provinces compared
a year ago ranges from -0.3 to 0.5 index points. CPI in Quirino province
during this month was down by 0.1 index point.

Across commodity groups, Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco still posted the highest CPI in the region
at an average of 251.0 and trailing behind was Furnishing, Household Equipment
& Routine Maintenance of the House with CPI of 128.3. At the bottom
and the cheapest commodity was the CPI report on Communication and Education at 99.4 and 95.1, respectively.

CPI in the provinces for Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco also prevailed the highest among other commodity groups as depicted by the closeness in the reported CPI
of the provinces. CPI for this particular commodity was recorded the highest
across provinces in Cagayan at 281.8 while that in the province of Quirino
at 194.3 was the lowest.

 

Two major commodities still showed lowest CPI, communication and education. 

The CPI for Education in the province of Cagayan was noted as lowest in the region. It maintained its CPI report of 73.8 percent
since August 2019 at 21.3 index points lower than the regional average and almost tripled the highest rate in the region reported
in the province of Batanes.

Communication followed next to education in terms of lowest CPI
in the region.  Although Education is lowest
among all commodity groups in the four provinces, Batanes showed
extreme behaviour
with Education as the second highest CPI in said province,
doubling that of all provinces of the region.  Communication,
being the second lowest average CPI in the region, on the other side showed Batanes par with the rest of the provinces
in terms of lowest CPI.

 
 

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) weakens at P 0.82   

The average PPP in the region from January to August this year was P0.83 and became weaker at P0.82 this September 2019. This means
that the value of P1.00 in 2012 is only worth P0.82
in September 2019. 

Although three of the provinces caused the region’s weaker PPP
this month, the provinces of Cagayan and  Quirino maintained their peso value from last month, with Quirino steadily  the strongest in terms of purchasing power with P0.86.

 

 

MARILYN T. ESTRADA
Regional Director
 
 
//GMB / MJCC

 

 

Technical Notes

 

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator of change in the average retail prices of a fixed    basket of goods and services
commonly purchased by households relative to a base year. It measures how much on the average, prices of goods and services
have  increased or decreased from a particular reference period. 

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) shows how much the peso in the base period is worth in another period. It gives an indication
of the real value of the peso in a given period relative to the peso value in the base period.  Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP)
is inversely related to inflation rate. Thus, as inflation rate increases, PPP declines.